Is the Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate Ready for the Power Challenges Ahead?

October 9, 2023
Zach Dodds-Brown, Project Development TFE

The Government’s recent announcement of a five-year delay on the 2030 ban of new petrol car sales was not entirely straightforward. Despite this delay, the Government quietly introduced the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, starting from January 1st, 2024. ZEV is a mandatory quota that dictates the minimum percentage of a car maker’s annual new car and van sales that must be EVs. The ZEV schedule gradually increases the quota over the years:

• 2024: 22%
• 2025: 28%
• 2026: 33%
• 2027: 38%
• 2028: 52%
• 2029: 66%
• 2030: 80%
• 2031: 84%
• 2032: 88%
• 2033: 92%
• 2034: 96%
• 2035: 100%

Car makers failing to meet these targets face fines of £15,000 for every vehicle falling short of the quota. By 2030, 80% of all new cars are expected to be EVs, making it unlikely that many new petrol models will be available. Despite this, there is a lack of realistic plans for generating a sufficient number of charging stations to support this transition and for developing a national energy strategy to produce the necessary additional electricity. Additionally, car makers are likely to pass the £15,000 fines onto buyers of petrol cars, making the transition financially burdensome for consumers.

The introduction of the ZEV mandate, with its gradual increase in the quota for EVs over the years, underscores the pressing need for a robust and reliable power generation infrastructure. As the industry shifts towards EVs, there is an ever-increasing demand for electricity that is consistent and not reliant on unpredictable weather conditions. Unlike renewable sources such as solar and wind, which are intermittent and weather-dependant, the transition to EVs highlights our need for a power supply that can deliver electricity consistently, on demand. This requirement for a stable energy supply becomes vital, especially considering the need for rapid charging stations to support the growing fleet of EVs.

Therefore, investing in an energy generation portfolio that includes sources capable of providing on-demand power, such as nuclear and natural gas, becomes essential to ensuring a secure and uninterrupted power supply, vital for both the transportation sector and the overall stability of the national energy grid.